Major Bloggers Endorse Edwards

Matt Stoller at Open Left (formerly of MyDD)
Chris Bower at Open Left (formerly of MyDD)
David Sirota
Jerome Armstrong at MyDD

Update from Ohio for Edwards: Skippy's almost there, and the Agonist and Big Tent Democrat have weighed in on Edwards side.And now, joining the eleventh hour throng of Edwards endorsers, the patron saint of the "Primaries Bore Me" crowd, Atrios will vote for Edwards.

A look at some recent polls out of Iowa

Honestly, this is a tie race right now with Edwards moving up.

Here are two or the most recent and best (low MOE, from reputable firm) polls:

McClatchy-MSNBC by Mason-Dixon, 23-26 December (can you imagine they called folks on Christmas!), MOE 5%, In parentheses is their 3-6 December poll and the trend).

Edwards 24 (21, +3)
Clinton 23 (27, -4)
Obama 22 (25, -3)
Richardson 12 (9, +3)
Biden 8 (5, +3)
Dodd 2
Kucinich 1
Undecided: 8

Edwards is winning among men and union households to get that lead. Obama is leading among first time caucus goers, so his GOTV will be huge for his success. Edwards is leading among those concerned with issues and those with electability in November. Obama leads on "change" (which is just bull in my opinion). Clinton wins with those most interested in "experience." On the issues Edwards is winning those most interested in the economy and Iraq, but Hillary is close behind. Shockingly, Hillary is winning healthcare voters in a huge way, while Obama has a slide lead among environmental voters with Edwards a close second.

Here's the kicker, if the non-major candidates are not viable and their caucus supporters go for a second-choice, Edwards is winning huge and it ends up looking like this

Edwards 33
Hillary 26
Obama 26
Other, Uncommitted and Unsure 15

But, Richardson will be viable in a few places and Biden will make it in places like Dubuque.

Research 2000, 26-27 December, 500 likely voters, parantheses are results of 10-13 December poll with trends)

Edwards 29 (24, +5)
Obama 29 (33, -4)
Hillary 28 (24, +4)
Richardson 7 (9, -2)
Biden 3 (3, even)

It all comes down to Iowa, so email me and join our trip, we leave on New Years Day.

The Closing Ads in Iowa and New Hampshire

Time for Truth



Choice



Power



30 Years



My thoughts: If it is Trippi who is making these ads, he's doing a great job. He gives John and/or Elizabeth the face time. I especially love that first two are Iowa specific and the series of him sitting at the chair in front of the window with the snow in the background. The one with Elizabeth is a winning testimonial -- sure it's from his wife, but she is beloved. I'd turn the volumn down a notch on Choice and Power so as not to distract from John.

Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, and a Joyous Feast of the Unconquered Sun

It's hard to read ELizabeth's flowing handwriting, but here is what it says:

Happiness
Health
Hope

But our words are just a promise about our actions. Live deliberately, sacrifice for what is truly important, and, above all, in these times -- and all times -- trust your heart.

John & Elizabeth Edwards
Cate, Emma Claire & Jack

Merry Christmas, -- Phil

Road Trip to the Iowa Caucuses: Vacation in Lovely Dubuque and Change America

It's beginning to look a lot like ... caucus.


A bunch of Michigan folks for Edwards will be driving to Dubuque, Iowa to take part in the Iowa caucuses from 1-4 January. This is possibly a once-in-a-lifetime chance to take part in this incredible event that goes a long way to choosing our next president. We won't just be going to make phone calls and canvas, we'll actually be co-precinct captains -- we'll be inside the caucus room talking with caucus-goers and making sure we get wins for Edwards.

You can be a part of the Iowa caucuses and the transformation of America -- you don't want to later regret that you didn't go. If you want to go, email me. Let me know as soon as you can so I can tell Dubuque HQ how many Michiganders are coming to win Iowa.

What we'll be doing

We'll arrive at the Edwards Field Office in Dubuque and receive training on being a co-precinct captain. Then each of us will be assigned a precinct and we'll hit the phones and knock on doors on 2 January in that precinct. On 3 January we'll do Get Out the Caucus work and prepare our corner of the caucus site at our precinct. Then, the Iowan caucus goers will arrive and we'll help to keep our group together and win over undecideds and those whose candidates aren't "viable" (they don't receive 15% of the precinct vote on the first ballot).
This is incredibly important work and can literally be something you can tell your kids and grandkids about -- "I was there at the beginning and I did more than my part."

And then ... the victory party!

Now, a little study guide to how caucuses work and what you'll be doing.

First, watch the clever little video for Edwards caucus precinct captains.

Then check out the Edwards Caucus Command Center.

A friend of mine and long-time caucus participant desmoinesdem has written several stories that discuss how the Iowa caucus works. I highly encourage you to read them before coming out (or bring them in the car for some roadtrip reading).

How the Iowa caucuses work, part 1 (basic elements of the caucus system)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 2 (discusses who is over-represented and who is under-represented when delegates are counted)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 3 (why it's hard to turn out caucus-goers)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 4 (more about why caucus turnout is low)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 5 (on second choices and caucus math)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 6 (on how precinct captains help their candidates before caucus night)
How the Iowa caucuses work, part 7 (measuring the candidates' support before the caucus)

About Dubuque

Dubuque is in north-east Iowa on the Mississippi River at the border with Illinois and Wisconsin. It has a population of about 60,000 (making it the 8th largest city in the state). While its economy is diversifying, Dubuque has traditionally been a center of manufacturing. Dubuque has a large Catholic population. I think its a great fit for Michiganders.

We adopted Dubuque since I'm friends with the southern Wisconsin Edwards coordinator and they picked Dubuque and it's one of the cities closest to Michigan. We've already had six people make visits to Dubuque, so we have a good reputation there and know the contacts.






















For more on Dubuque see its Wikipedia page.


Organizing the Trip
Total travel time to Dubuque is about 6 hours from Kalamazoo.

Caravan and Carpools
Contact me and we'll find a way to carpool and caravan from all parts of Michigan. Those of us in Grand Rapids are leaving around noon on 1 January, Tuesday. It certainly would be possible to meet up with people in Kalamazoo. I'm happy to organize travel at other times.
Hotels
Some of us are staying at the Downtown Hilton, but you can check out deals on Travelocity or I can contact the Dubuque HQ and get you a place to stay a few nights at the home of supporters.

When you RSVP, please include whether or not you need a place to stay, when you plan to come down, if you need a ride, and if you can give rides.

Tell Santa that you want a trip to Iowa for Christmas.

More Information
Dubuque newspaper: The Telegraph Herald
Official Edwards Iowa Campaign Site
Unofficial Iowa for Edwards Blog

You too can be as happy as this Michigander who went to Dubuque! Heck, it's not like we're having a meaningful primary here (vote Uncommitted in the Michigan strawpoll on 15 January).

Finally, a message from John on the Iowa caucuses:

John is working hard to win Dubuque -- he will have been there 2 or 3 times in the last 2 weeks (heck, you'll probably get a chance to see him the in the one or two days before the caucus). Now it's time to do your part.

This is what it comes down to in Iowa. And if we win Iowa, we have the buzz and momentum going forward in this campaign, and the inside track at the Democratic nomination for John Edwards. And from there, we can put John Edwards and the vision for One America in the White House. Will you be part of this special day in Iowa? I hope so and I'll see you there!

We are leaving in 9 days. Don't miss out. Email me and be a part of this historic event.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, and a Joyous Feast of the Unconquered Sun: Now Let's Live Up to the Promise of this Season

Recent Media Appearances: Toward the Closing Argument

Hardball on Monday



Sunday Morning Talkshows

coming soon....

John Edwards: The Movie -- Opening 3 January 2008

Coming soon to a precinct near you!



This "movie trailer" is being emailed to supporters throughout Iowa and across the country by Kevin Bacon. In the email, Bacon encourages Iowans to share the video, and their support for Edwards, with their friends, family and neighbors.
It has been rated "CG" for Caucus-Going Audiences (but consider it PV as well -- for Primary Voting Audiences).

Bonior Places the Blame for the Primary Farce Straight on Jennifer Granholm

I've heard from many sources (five) that the reason that we're apparently going forward with this farce of a primary is because Jennifer Granholm (led by her staffers) has decided that since she doesn't have a future in Michigan politics (she's term-limited as governor and there won't be a Senate seat open for 4 years -- and Stabenow will likely run for a third term -- or 6 years -- and who knows if Carl Levin will ever retire or if he has a horizontal exit strategy) her "best bet" (which isn't looking too good right about now) is to latch on to a Hillary Clinton Administration. So, Granholm has basically switched her constituency from Michigan and Michigan Democrats to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Apparently the governor (allied with fellow Clinton-endorser Debbie Dingell) is stronger than Mark Brewer in the MDP Central Committee.

Here's what the former US congressman from Macomb County, and current Edwards' campaign manager has to say:

"This is the doing of the governor and Senator Levin and others who have really taken away that opportunity for the people of Michigan to have a real choice. This was an attempt basically by the Clinton people in Michigan to take away what was a caucus of longstanding in the state. They thought it would be to their advantage to do this because they had the money and the celebrity and the power at that time."

While the attempt to break the rules and push our way to the front started with good, if misguided intentions, the reason we haven't gone back to a DNC-sanctioned caucus after having all of our delegates stripped by the DNC is because Granholm has more loyalty to Hillary Clinton than she does to Michigan Democrats and indeed democracy in Michigan. I for one will not ever give money to or support Jennifer Granholm in any election. I urge y'all to consider doing the same -- if she won't let us vote in a meaningful primary or caucus (where we elect actual delegates to the National Convention after rule-abiding campaign) then I see no reason to support someone who tramples on my right to vote as an American.

I'll have a full update on the primary/caucus fiasco in a few days.

First Lady of Iowa Endorses John Edwards

Mari Culver, wife of Democratic Iowa Governor Chet Culver, has announced her support for John Edwards, saying:

"I think John is a winner. He's electable. He's been tested. He's been on the national ticket before. The national polls show him beating all Republicans in the general elections. He inspires me. I think he inspires other Iowans, and I think he can really rally Americans in the fall."

Both Culver's endorsed Edwards in 2004 (though the governor of Iowa has traditionally remained neutral in the caucuses). Governor Culver and Senator Edwards have a long-standing relationship and have shared staff. Culver's chief of staff, Patrick Dillon, worked for Edwards in Iowa in 2004, and his is married to Jennifer O'Malley, Edwards' state director. Another Edwards alum serves as Culver's communications director.

RichRod Will Be the Next Coach of the University of Michigan Wolverines

From the University of Michigan Athletic Department:

Bill Martin, Director of Intercollegiate Athletics at the University of Michigan, has officially announced that Rich Rodriguez will be named the new head coach for the Wolverine football team. The 44-year-old Rodriguez will be introduced at a media only-press conference tomorrow (Monday, Dec. 17) at 9 a.m. in the Junge Family Champions Center.

From the AP:

Michigan has hired West Virginia's Rich Rodriguez as its next football coach following a search that featured two other top prospects deciding to stay put. Rodriguez, whose No. 11 Mountaineers are preparing for their second BCS game in three seasons, will take over Michigan's program from Lloyd Carr, Michigan athletic department spokesman Bruce Madej said Sunday.

News like this is apparently supposed to make one want to do the Peanut Butter and Jelly.



Michigan also looked at LSU's Les Miles, Rutger's Greg Schiano, Cal's Jeff Tedford, and UM Defensive Coordinator Ron English the hardest (apparently).

Rodriguez has run the spread option offense at WVU, while Michigan has run a pro-style drop-back qb with tailback and fullback offense since the forward pass was invented (ironically by Michigan's Fielding Yost).

Only time will tell how good of a hire this is (duh), but the guy has been nothing but successful at West Virginia.

Welcome Coach! We're behind you 100%

Go Blue!

Now This is a Great Ad

I've been real happy with most of the Edwards campaign ads (a few of the non-campaign 527 ads could have been better), but this one is a real good closer:

A Christmas Essay By Robert: The Year We Stole a Christmas Tree

A brilliant story by a friend of mine over at DailyKos.

You won't regret clicking on it.

Edwards Wins Final Iowa Debate

The reviews are in from voters and the media: Edwards Wins! (get used to that headline).

NCDemAmy has the story over at DailyKos.

Final Iowa Debate Today

The Des Moines Register's Democratic Presidential Debate, the last debate before the Iowa caucuses, is today (Thursday).

Both debates will be broadcast live at 1 p.m on Iowa Public Television, and replayed on IPTV at 7 p.m. each evening. The debates will also air live on CNN, C-SPAN3, Fox News Channel, C-SPAN Radio and Fox News Radio.

No That's What I'm Talkin' 'Bout Mother F*#cker!

Felicity Huffman on the picket line.

Robert Thinks Edwards Will Probably Win Iowa

From the Mark Maynard blog:

Our friend Robert, who has spent quite a bit of time recently on the campaign trail in Iowa, has a prediction. And, since it’s one that I like, here it is:

Edwards is not only in the race, but I’d say that at this point there is a
better than 50% chance he is going to win Iowa. Some of the media may be,
as you say, tired of him, or just not interested in him as much as they are the
more sensational bashing going back and forth between Hillary and Obama. But I
think what most of the media is doing is trying not to give Edwards much
attention, hoping it will somehow erode his support. My sense here is that it is
actually having the opposite affect. We are getting a lot of new people
approaching the campaign thinking we need lots of help to “get back into
things.” The truth, which is pretty obvious here now, is that Edwards
has the most solid organization and base of support.

At this time in 2004, some people who know me might remember I was telling
everyone Dean was going to loose Iowa, and possibly not even be among the top
two or three finishers. Most people, and the media, were pretending Dean was
going to win. He came in third. I knew Kerry was going to win the Iowa caucus,
but I had no idea that Edwards would come in second, or who would. It was just
obvious that the Dean campaign was too hollow here. Obama’s campaign
looks very similar in this one.

I predict Edwards will win Iowa narrowly over Clinton. I don’t
believe Obama will necessarily even come in third. I think his people
may be outmaneuvered by some of the second tier campaigns (Richardson, Dodd, and Biden) in various regions where those campaigns have savvy caucus-er.

UNITE-HERE Midwest Endorses Edwards

While the national announced on Wednesday that it is waiting until after Iowa, the UNITE-HERE Midwest Region (which includes UNITE-HERE Michigan) has endorsed John Edwards for President.

Noel Beasley, manager of the Chicago and Midwest Regional Joint Board, said of her membership:

Our members are emphatic in their support for Senator Edwards, and anxious to get involved.

The Midwest Regional Joint Board represents over 50,000 workers in clothing factories, hotels and restaurants, sports venues, gaming casinos, airports, laundries, warehouses and auto parts facilities, etc. in 11 states including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin (there are two independent locals in Chicago who are not part of the Midwest Board and have not endorsed anyone). Beasley said the board's support for Edwards was longtime and unanimous.

The Chicago and Midwest Regional Joint Board plans to go to work for the former North Carolina senator immediately -- with volunteers, staff and financial assistance -- and will work in conjunction with other unions including the SEIUs that cover the territory and have endorsed Edwards (Iowa, Ohio, Michigan and Minnesota). Beasley states that they should have 40 to 50 volunteers and staff in Iowa within a week.

AP and the Las Vegas Review-Journal report that UNITE-HERE national and the semi-independent Culinary Union Local 226 (with 60,000 members in Las Vegas) decided to delay an endorsement until early January. Clearly, they're a bit spooked and are waiting to make sure that Edwards and will make it to Nevada. With Nevada's caucus on 19 January (just 16 days after the Iowa causcuses) they'll have to crank up the political organizational drive into high gear with a decision likely on 4 January.

Here's Pilar Weiss, political director of Culinary 226:

We've always said that part of what was important to us was that we wanted to have a candidate who was a good fit with our members and we also wanted to see that people had viable campaigns and were poised to do well nationally. I don't think it's cowardly to say that we want to see how this stuff plays out in the next couple weeks.

UNITE HERE general president Bruce Raynor, who has been public about his support for Edwards, insisted that UNITE-HERE would not mimic the Service Employees International Union, whose national leaders could not reach a consensus and left it to local state councils to issue endorsements.

We're not going to follow that [since it would] dilute [our] influence on the process.

An additional reason for the delay is that Culinary (the largest local in UNITE-HERE by far) just finished contentious contract negotiations with Las Vegas casinos and hotels. One outcome of the discussions within UNITE-HERE is that there will be a single endorsement and Culinary 226 will be part of that endorsement, accoring to the Las Vegas Sun's Michael Mishak.

There is a good chance that whoever receives the endorsement of Culinary will win the Nevada Democratic caucus since the union has over 60,000 members in a state that had only 7,000 caucus goers in 2004 and plays a large role in the Nevada Democratic Party.

Chris Chafe, both a senior adviser to Edwards' campaign on labor and in Nevada and a former chief of staff and political director of UNITE-HERE commented on the events:

I think that Senator Edwards has a deep, deep level of support across UNITE HERE. There are many parts of the union that have a long history with him. [The Midwest board, a coalition of union locals in 11 states, is significant because it] spans all the battleground states in the Midwest. They understand who is the most electable Democrat for November.

UNITE, the Union of Needletrades, Textiles and Industrial Employees, endorsed Edwards in 2004 before merging with the Hotel Employees and Restaurant Employees International Union to form UNITE HERE.

In other Nevada labor news, it looks like the Nevada SEIU is going to be making an endorsement within a week and that the favorite is John Edwards, but the decision seems to be caught up in all sorts of partisan and union-internal politics.

Here's Johnny giving a speech UNITE-HERE Local 1 members at the picket of the Congress Hotel in Chicago during the Yearly Kos convention 2007 (myself, Peter from WI, mrobinsong, and other Edwards-YearlyKossacks were there):



The proof of the above statement:



Crossposted on the Labor-Netroots for Edwards Blog, Michigan Liberal, and Michigan for Edwards.

Ways to Contact Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire

Be your own phonebank to New Hampshire: http://johnedwardsphonebank.com/index.php

Go through DFA: DFA has addresses of DFA members in Iowa and you can write them pro-Edwards letters (which is fine by them, they're basicall endorsing Edwards, Kucinich and Obama): http://www.democracyforamerica.com/uniteletters

The New TV Ads

Together



20 Generations



Mess



Born

Michiganders To Iowa

A group of us are organizing a road-trip to Iowa to take part in the Caucus. You can help the GOTV and can be a Precinct Captain, Co-Captain or Advisor (even though you won't be able to vote you can be a spokesperson).

So contact me at michiganforedwards

and watch this fun video:



For more on helping in the Iowa Caucus: The Edwards Caucus Command Center.

There will also be groups going out the weekend of 15-17 December and I know that Michigan Students for Edwards are heading out when the finals are over. Email Travis from U of M.

Reminder: Iowa Public Radio Debate Today at 2:00 pm

Information and how to listen live at Iowa Public Radio.

Too Damn Funny

In this winter of our discontent (with the MDP for disenfranchising us -- still time to fix that guys and galls -- and with Les Miles and his agent), we could use a laugh.



PS: John Edwards hasn't bothered to even cheat on his wife either.

DNC Enforces Its Rules and Strips Michigan of Its Delegates

unless the MDP submits a revised DSP that can be sanctioned by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee within 30 days.

If we use a 15 January "primary" we will not be selecting any delegates to the National Convention and we Michigan Democrats will have been effectively disenfranchised by our own Party "leadership."

The media reports:
Associated Press
Detroit News
Congressional Quarterly
Real Clear Politics

We believe that the MDP is continuing its negotiations with the DNC RBC and will indeed find a way to be in "full compliance" with Democratic Party Rules. But the forces within the MDP which are taking a reasonable position need our assistance.

So, once again, time to contact the MDP and encourage them to reach a final solution ASAP that will allow you to have a meaningful vote.

Call the MDP: (517) 371-5410
Email the MDP: midemparty@michigandems.com

A sample email:

I urge Chairman Brewer and the MDP Central Committee to send a letter to the Michigan Secretary of State informing Secretary Land that the Democratic Party opt-out of the 15 January "primary"/beauty contest for the purpose of selecting delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

I urge Chairman Brewer to submit a revised Delegate Selection Plan to the Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee which can be found by the RBC to be in "full compliance with Party Rules" this week so that
candidates may begin their campaigns in Michigan. Enough time has been wasted.

I want a DNC-sanctioned caucus (presumably on or after 5 February unless you can reach a compromise date with the DNC) so there can be campaigning in Michigan, so the candidates will address Michigan issues, so that all the candidates will be on the ballot, so that we'll be choosing actual delegates and not having a mere beauty contest, so that Michigan Democrats can vote for who they want to vote for, and so that the DNC will be in a position of power to enforce primary calendar reforms for 2012. And I want it now, since we're losing valuable time when the candidates could be coming to Michigan this month.

Sincerely,
Name Phone Number
Email address
MDP Party ID (if you've got one) and County Party Membership status (if
you're in one)

Fire them off now.





You can discuss the issue with your fellow Michiganders at MichiganLiberal.

Democratic Iowa Public Radio Debate This Tuesday

The NPR News and Iowa Public Radio national Democratic Presidential debate, to be broadcast and webcast live from 1:00-3:00PM (CT) on Tuesday, December 4, will be held at the State Historical Museum in Des Moines, with NPR News journalists and hosts Steve Inskeep, Michele Norris and Robert Siegel as moderators.

The two-hour event, leading up to the Iowa Caucus, will offer the first audio-only debate of the presidential race and will repeat the format introduced in 2004 by NPR and the NPR Member Stations of Iowa. All major Democratic candidates are confirmed to attend. The setting is relaxed: the candidates sit closely together around a U-shaped table, with no studio audience or video cameras. Breaking away from the question-and-answer structure traditionally presented by the television networks, the NPR/IPR debate will feature three areas of discussion and the moderators will enable the candidates to conduct a dialogue with each other.

More information: http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/debates/
and http://iowapublicradio.org/index.php