Michigan Delegate Allocation in the Congressional Districts

From Grebner's The Michigan Democratic Primary -- The Math, Part II at Michigan Liberal we learn about how the votes from last night will play out in the Michigan Delegation to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August. There is more information there and it's formatted better there.

Complete unofficial returns indicate that the Michigan's 128 potential delegates will be distributed:

Clinton: 73 delegates -- 57% of the total delegates
Uncommitted: 55 delegates -- 43% of the total delegates

These delegates will be selected under state party rules beginning in March. Who knows if they will be seated -- my guess is that 1/2 will be seated as delegates with limited voting rights. In any event we will next go through the process of electing these "delegates." Anybody interested in the process should consult the delegate selection plan at the MDP website. I would just note that February 28 is the deadline for a candidate for delegate to file that intent with the state party.

Here are the important numbers, as of about 9:00 a.m.:

CD CLINTON UNCOMM TOTAL CPCT UPCT DEL Clint Uncom
1 19553 9150 30249 64.6 30.2 5 3 2
2 16427 10174 27834 59.0 36.6 5 3 2
3 14957 12732 28976 51.6 43.9 5 3 2
4 17376 9400 28136 61.8 33.4 5 3 2
5 22558 14493 38219 59.0 37.9 6 4 2
6 15822 11031 28221 56.1 39.1 5 3 2
7 16665 9921 28125 59.3 35.3 5 3 2
8 20098 13684 35832 56.1 38.2 6 4 2
9 25864 20074 48545 53.3 41.4 6 3 3
10 24278 11930 37982 63.9 31.4 5 3 2
11 26809 16606 45763 58.6 36.3 5 3 2
12 30879 22386 55795 55.3 40.1 6 3* 3
13 29674 29004 60673 48.9 47.8 6 3 3
14 33334 35000 70537 47.3 49.6 7 3 4
15 28591 20747 52898 54.0 39.2 6 3* 3

AL 342885 246332 617785 55.5 39.9 28 16 12
PL 17 10 7

GRAND TOTAL 128 73 55


Grebner explains the table: The first three columns are raw votes for Clinton, Uncommitted and the total of all votes. Note that in no place do any other candidates come close to the qualifying percentage for delegates so they have been omitted. The Clinton and Uncommitted percentages are proportions of the total. The next column has the total number of delegates to be allocated. At the bottom, AL refers to the at-large delegates and PL to the pledged party leader delegates, both of which are apportioned statewide based on the statewide total of votes. The last two columns are the delegate allocations for each pool between Clinton and Uncommitted.

The stars in the Clinton column in CDs 12 and 15 indicates that in each district Clinton is just a little short of the votes needed to win a fourth delegate (and Uncommitted is close to losing a delegate). These are the districts where even a small change from the unofficial to official totals could affect delegate totals.