"Primary" Thoughts

The final statewide numbers (from CNN).

Clinton: 55% -- 328,151 votes
Uncommitted: 40% -- 236,723 votes
Kucinich: 4% -- 21, 708
Dodd: 1% -- 3,853 votes
Gravel: 0% -- 2,363 votes

Overall, I'm just amazed that 40% of those that voted, took the time to go out and vote for "nobody" given there was no campaign to speak of, just some small grassroots work on LTEs and email lists. Especially given that Team Hillary Michigan sent out glossy mailers and held rallies for Hillary. I also credit the media which around here and I know in Lansing, got the word out that Edwards and Obama supporters were advocating Uncommitted.

County Results

Results from some of the larger and more Democratic counties (U=Uncommitted, C=Clinton, K=Kucinich)

Washtenaw: U 47, C 44, K 9. A major county with an Uncommitted Win! To which I can only say: Go Blue!
Kent: C 50, U 45, K 3. I really feel like the local activists for Edwards and Obama were able to hustle out hear and get media and LTEs and email lists and flip the national average by 10%. Congrats to Celia, Melissa and all of us that played a role.
Wayne: C 50, U 46, K 3.
Oakland: C 51, U 44, K 4.
Macomb: C 64, U 31, K 3. Disappointing.

So, in the big cities and in our premier college town, among our most informed Democrats, Uncommitted did very well, about 10 points better than state-wide (other than Macomb).

Seems like the message just didn't get out to some of the medium cities in Michigan.
Saginaw: C 61, U 36, K 2.
Genesee: C 57, U 40, K 2.
Muskegon: C 61, U 36, K 2.
Livingston: C 59, U 34, K 4.

though other medium cities did vote for Uncommitted at a rate higher than the state-wide rate:
Kalamazoo: C 52, U 42, K 5.
Ingham: C 52, U 41, K 5.

It'll be interesting to see where the 5 delegates from the Third Congressional District go. My guess is 3 Hillary and 2 Uncommitted with maybe the Alternate going Uncommitted.

On Turnout

In Michigan, according to the CNN website:
Total Voters: 1,456,098 voters, a 21% turnout among registered voters.
Republican-ballot Turnout: 864,303 voters, or 59% of total turnout.
Democrat-ballot Turnout: 591,795 voters, or 40% of total turnout.

We haven't had a primary in years, so it's near impossible to compare apples and oranges as far as turnout goes since caucuses are Party-run and have far fewer polling places (but, so you know, 162,929 people voted in the 2004 Democratic caucus).

However, what we can look at is comparative turnout with Iowa and New Hampshire. In both cases, Democratic turnout far surpassed Republicans (68% Democratic, 32% Republican in Iowa; 58% Democratic and 42% Republican in New Hampshire, both traditional swing states).

In the New Hampshire primary 58% of registered voters participated. In Iowa, turnout was a historically high 17%, which seems low, but remember you're asking folks to run out after dinner and sit in a room with their neighbors to discuss politics for about an hour and a half.

In Michigan, our turnout was a dismal 21% of registered voters. Of those Michiganders that voted, 59% voted in the Republican primary and just 40% in the Democratic "primary."

So, here in Jennifer Granholm's Michigan, the Republicans, even though they're disheartened in general, outpolled Democrats 3-2, reversing national trends of Democrats outvoting Republicans almost 2-1. Michigan, with its Blue voting record, a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators should have been part of the nation-wide enthusiasm for our Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party in general. We weren't, largely because our governor was able to strongarm our Party into this farcical primary. The legacy of Jennifer's "primary" is confused and angry voters as well as unenthusiastic and very angry activists. The effects of this purposeful fiasco will be felt in November for the detriment of the Michigan Democratic Party, Michigan and maybe even America.

How Did Democrats Vote?

Remarkably, 40% of those Democrats that did turn out voted for "nobody," with another 5% voting for minor candidates, one who dropped out 2 weeks ago, while from my math it seems that about 10% of Democratic voters switched over to the Republican ballot.

If we could look at the Democratic vote on both ballots it would be something like.
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Uncommitted: 36%
Various Republicans: 11%
Kucinich or Dodd: 4%

No word on spoiled votes as far as I know, but about 98% of those spoiled ballots would have been Write-Ins for someone other than Hillary.
Add in that apparently 15% of the Clinton vote was made up of folks that would have voted Edwards or Obama had they been on the ballot, and even among those who bothered to go out yesterday, Hillary was the first choice of significantly less than 1/2 of all Michigan Democrats even though she was the only candidate on the ballot.
There's also the interesting fact that 2% of those voting on the Republican side voted Uncommitted. I wonder if those were mostly Democrats who heard the message that "the Democratic ballot is largely meaningless, so vote in the Republican primary" and the message "vote Uncommitted" and combined them.

For a study of exit polls, see nirmal's What do the Exit Polls Tell Us About the Michigan Primary? which is very impressive, though it's really hard to tell what would have happened in Michigan had their been an actual campaign (heck, if Michigan was this early and important there probably would have at least been a Michigan UAW endorsement and from all indications I've heard, that would have gone to Edwards). One of the many interesting facts that come out of the exit polls and nirmal's reading is that

According to the exits, the Republican primary vote consisted of 7% Democrats, 25% Independents, and 68% Republicans.

So, for all the scheming of Kos for Romney and others for Paul and Huckabee, must Democrats who didn't stay home, stayed with their Party. The hoped for or feared Democratic ballot-switcher was far rarely than most believed. That's good news all around. And, a plurality of those Democratic and independent voters who went with the Republican ballot voted for McCain rather than the candidates of the failed mischief-makers.

Now, we'll have to see how the delegates are divided among Hillary and Uncommitted in the Congressional Districts and what Uncommitted delegates are elected and which candidate they support. In some ways, there is a second vote for Michigan's delegates on 29 March at the Congressional District Conventions. Join our Party -- it needs some fixing -- and come to the Convention.

Oh, and by the way there was a story on what Democratic activists were thinking heading into the primary by Matt Miller in the Lansing State Journal on Saturday which was very well done (not to mention I'm quoted in it). And, yes, it was this blog that was mentioned on CNN and got a minute of national air time on Wolf Blitzer's The Situation Room (though I still have to check my tivo to watch it, I've gotten several emails, including one from my parents who were largely blissfully ignorant of my blogging, phone calls, and folks coming up to me that saw it. I don't really watch TV, but it's amazing how many people heard that story. Well, that's how little ole voters and activists like me can get heard, just sign up for a blogger account and starting writing and doing. Heck, the governor calls me philgoblue, though now she probably prefaces it with "that damned."